(016) Empirical Estimation of Hepatocellular Carcinoma Prevalence in Saudi Arabia: A Gender and Age Group Analysis

Background: Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is one of the leading causes of cancer death globally and in Saudi Arabia. Understanding its prevalence at the national level is crucial for evaluating its impact on a population and the quality of healthcare systems

Objectives: To determine HCC prevalence in Saudi Arabia using empirical estimation by combining registry data, census figures, and survival rates

Methods: In this study, we estimated the HCC prevalence in Saudi for 2020 using a retrospective analysis of data from the Saudi National Cancer Registry (2005-2017), published survival rates (2005-2009), population statistics from the Saudi General Authority for Statistics (2005-2020), supplementary population estimates from the Ministry of Economy and Planning. New HCC cases were extracted and categorized by age, gender, and nationality. Prevalence was calculated as living diagnosed individuals divided by the total population, assuming that HCC incidence rates from 2017 remained constant for 2018-2020. Missing survival data for certain demographics were interpolated to refine the prevalence calculation. The overall prevalence was then determined by summing age- and gender-specific prevalence and validated through 1,000 binomial distribution simulations to provide a 95% confidence interval

Results: A total of 6,743 diagnosed cases of HCC were identified (male: 4,685; female: 2,058) cases. The age groups most affected in males were 75+ and 70-74 years, while in females, were 75+ and 55-59 years. Of those diagnosed between 2005 and 2020, an estimated 634 are expected to be alive today
Out of the total number of females diagnosed between 2005 and 2020, an estimated 498.6 are expected to be alive today. The estimated prevalence of HCC in 2021 for individuals diagnosed between 2005 and 2020 was 634 living males and 499 living females. The final prevalence adjusted rate per 100,000 population was 7.49 for males and 6.36 for females

Conclusions: This study provides a comprehensive empirical estimation of the prevalence of HCC in Saudi Arabia and reflects the significant impact of this disease on the population, particularly among males and older age groups. The calculated prevalence indicates a higher burden in males compared to females. The study's approach, which includes interpolating missing data and employing statistical simulations, offers a robust prevalence estimate that is crucial for healthcare stakeholders. These findings underscore the need for targeted healthcare interventions and resources to address HCC burden effectively. Furthermore, they highlight the importance of continuous improvement in national cancer registries and the utility of comprehensive data analysis in informing public health strategies and optimizing cancer care delivery in Saudi Arabia