(033) US and Global Cutaneous Melanoma Burden: An Updated Epidemiology Assessment

Background: Cutaneous melanoma is one of the most frequently diagnosed types of cancer worldwide and incidence has continued to increase in the United States (US) over the past several decades. While the majority of cases are diagnosed at early stages when the tumor is resectable, there is an elevated risk of recurrence and mortality for people diagnosed with more advanced disease.

Objectives: To quantify the incidence and mortality in order to estimate the burden of cutaneous melanoma in the US and outside the US.

Methods: Incidence, stage, and survival rates were based on observational, population-based registry data extracted from the Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) Program (www.seer.cancer.gov) SEER*Stat Database (extracted May 2023). Age-specific mortality rates were calculated using the SEER*Explorer interactive website (seer.cancer.gov/statistics-network/explorer/). Survival curves by stage were used to estimate mortality. Rates were applied to generate estimates for several countries outside the US using data from national public health agencies where available to provide context for the global unmet need of advanced-stage cutaneous melanoma.

Results: There were 298,226 newly diagnosed cutaneous melanoma cases in the US projected for the 2023–2025 period and incidence rates were projected to increase 1.1% annually based on historical growth rates from SEER. The estimated incidence over the three-year period was 216,458 (73%), 42,254 (14%), 24,773 (8%), and 14,741 (5%) for Stage I, II, III, and IV respectively. Among persons diagnosed with Stage III disease we estimated that there would be 1,813 deaths; among those diagnosed with Stage IV disease, we estimated that there would be 3,370 deaths in 2025 (i.e., three-year mortality after diagnosis in 2023–2025). Stage I and II diagnoses did not materially contribute to mortality estimates ( < 30 deaths estimated). Generally, similar patterns were observed in the European Union (EU) and Australia. For instance, incidence rates were projected to increase 2.0% annually in France and 2.3% in Australia based on historical growth rates from Santé Publique France and the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare.

Conclusions: Incidence of cutaneous melanoma is expected to continue to increase, and the burden of disease remains high, particularly for patients diagnosed with advanced stage disease. Similar patterns were observed when compared to reports from the EU, United Kingdom, Canada, and Australia, providing evidence that mortality and therefore global unmet need remains high.